Tour de France 2023: Yellow jersey guide and ratings – Can anyone topple Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar?

Updated 29/06/2023 at 13:23 GMT

Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard and two-time winner Tadej Pogacar will renew their rivalry when the Tour de France gets under way in Bilbao on Saturday July 1. While the Dane and the Slovenian are the stand-out favourites for yellow, who else can make a push for the podium in Paris? Felix Lowe looks at all the general classification contenders looking to stake their claim for yellow in France.

‘Wow’ – Vingegaard allows Pogacar to catch up after crash in ‘incredible’ gesture

The long wait is over; the riders are gathering in Bilbao and the 110th edition of the Tour de France is almost upon us. Two stages in the Basque Country are followed by an undulating coastal schlep over the French border to Bayonne for the first of what could be eight frantic sprint finishes.

But it will not be long before the focus shifts towards the battle for yellow with the first GC showdown coming in Stage 6 in the Pyrenees with a mountaintop finish at Cauterets after an ascent of the legendary Col du Tourmalet. Additional uphill finales come on the iconic Puy de Dome in the Massif Central, the brutal Grand Colombier in the Jura, and at Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc in the Alps.

A hilly 22.4km race against the clock in Stage 16 should provide another focal point in the quest for the maillot jaune, as will a “queen stage” to Courchevel that features 5,000m of climbing and a technical descent following the highest point of the race – the Col de la Loze – as well as a penultimate day that packs six pointy climbs in the Vosges in just 133km.

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Who does the route suit best and who can be a surprise package in this year’s eagerly anticipated Tour? Let’s now take a closer look.

The favourites: Vingegaard and Pogacar

Is this cycling’s equivalent of the Federer-Nadal rivalry in tennis from a decade ago? It’s hard seeing anyone else getting a look in when there are two riders who stand head, shoulders and a busby above the rest of the peloton.

Back in the spring – when Tadej Pogacar ran rings around his big rival in Paris-Nice before soloing to glory in the Tour of Flanders – it seemed impossible to envisage any other scenario than the Slovenian wresting his yellow jersey back from Jonas Vingegaard's slumped shoulders in July.

But the wrist injury he sustained in Liege-Bastogne-Liege took the wind from Pogacar’s sails and forced the 24-year-old to take an enforced break.

"Actually you could say the crash happened at a perfect time,” Pogacar said this week ahead of his fourth Tour, trying to put a spin on things. “Naturally I didn’t want it to happen like that, but I was due a long break and I guess the injury just forced me to rest a bit more.”

Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar

Image credit: Getty Images

While Vingegaard was finding form with three stage wins and the overall crown in Itzulia Basque Country, Pogacar had to get creative in a bid not to lose the benefits from all his hard work in a spring that yielded 12 wins from 19 race days.

“A week after my crash, I had to find a way to keep my fitness up. Indoor training was integral to my recovery plan in those early weeks. I was riding virtually on MyWhoosh everyday, which helped time go much faster and made training a lot more interesting – keeping me motivated and on track.

“Most days I was also doing double-sessions on the rollers, one in the morning for an hour or two and another in the afternoon, alongside rehab on my wrist, running and core work. It’s been quite an active couple of months.”

But anyone who watched Vingegaard’s dominant display in the Dauphine – where the Dane took two wins and two second places on his way to finishing over two minutes ahead of Pogacar’s team-mate Adam Yates – will find it hard to look beyond the 26-year-old doubling up this July.

Not that Pogacar is letting his rival’s form faze him in any way. “For the last few weeks, I’ve been back on the road and feeling pretty good. It shouldn’t hinder me too much for the Tour – it could even turn out to be a positive thing, the forced rest.”

That said, the Slovenian did admit, following his recent altitude camp in Sierra Nevada and subsequent recon of some of the Tour climbs, that, while he feels no pain, he does not yet have 100% mobility in his wrist. As such, he is entering the race with a “totally different mindset”.

Vingegaard’s performances in the Dauphine, he says, makes the Dane the favourite in France. But Pogacar has stressed that he has “nothing to lose” and may benefit, despite his “unconventional preparation”, from not being the man everyone expects to see in yellow on the Champs-Elysees.

A double win in the Slovenian national time trial and road race championships will be a boost for Pogacar, although he knows full well that in Vingegaard and his supreme Jumbo-Visma team, he faces far stiffer opposition than his countrymen.

Pushing for the podium: Mas, Hindley and Carapaz

Jai Hindley of Australia and Team Bora - Hansgrohe Pink Leader Jersey celebrates at podium with the Trofeo Senza Fine as overall race winner during the 105th Giro d'Italia 2022, Stage 21 a 17,4km individual time trial stage from Verona to Verona.

Image credit: Getty Images

Let’s be honest: unless something happens to Vingegaard or Pogacar, then the other GC favourites are simply fighting for the final spot on the podium.

Enric Mas (Movistar) has finished runner-up in the last two editions of the Vuelta and was sixth in the 2021 Tour. The Spaniard’s race was derailed by Covid last year, but he has the experience, grittiness and consistency to grind out results. Mas’ form looked patchy in the Dauphine but he will surely peak for the Tour and push for that third spot on the podium.

Besides the Big Two, there are only three other riders on the startlist with Grand Tour overall victories to their name; Jai Hindley (Bora-hansgrohe) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) are among them.

Australian Hindley, the 2022 Giro champion, is making his Tour debut off the back of finishing fourth in the Dauphine. He has the support of a strong Bora-hansgrohe team – including Germany’s Emanuel Buchmann, fourth in 2019 – and could go under the radar.

Ecuador’s Carapaz has done very little since his move from Ineos Grenadiers to Jonathan Vaughters’ stable, but rumour has it the 30-year-old Olympic champion has been training really well and could reap the rewards this July. If he can rediscover the form that won him the Giro in 2019, he could well match the third place he took two years ago behind Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Vying for the top five: Gaudu, O’Connor, Simon Yates

Tadej Pögacar, David Gaudu and Jonas Vingegaard on the podium at Paris-Nice

Image credit: Getty Images

With Geraint Thomas absent, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) should logically be the favourite to take that third spot on the podium. But the Frenchman has had more DNFs to his name that victories this year and he could only take 30th in the Dauphine in June, not once cracking the top 10. With that in mind, a top five is surely the most Gaudu can expect – even if his team have left sprinter Arnaud Demare at home.

After finishing fourth in his debut Tour in 2021, Ben O’Connor (AG2R-Citroen) had a nightmare return last year – his battles with injury and his directeur sportif highlighted in the recent Tour de France: Unchained TV series. A promising third in the Dauphine shows that the 27-year-old can once again push for a top five finish in France.

Although he won the Vuelta in 2018, Simon Yates (Team Jayco-AlUla) has never ridden himself in a GC battle on the Tour – the British rider’s seventh place in 2017 his highest finish in five outings. It remains to be seen if he is targeting stage wins or going for yellow – perhaps the former, given his last race day was back in April.

Time is running out: Landa, Bardet

Mikel Landa on the podium at La Fleche Wallonne 2023

Image credit: Getty Images

Mikel Landa (Bahrain-Victorious) returns to the Tour for the first time since finishing fourth in the 2020 edition. Third place in last year’s Giro shows that the Basque climber still has what it takes – although it’s hard to see Landa becoming a genuine contender in a race where he’s yet to win a stage.

Winning Tour stages hasn’t been a problem for Romain Bardet (Team DSM-Firmenich) – the Frenchman has three – although it has not been six years since the 32-year-old stood atop the podium in his home race (discounting the polka dot jersey he snared in 2019).

Gone are the days when riders like Landa or Bardet could seriously consider themselves to be part of the yellow jersey conversation. But their climbing ability should put them into the top 10 while both will hope to win a stage along the way.

The Plan Bs: Kelderman, Haig, Buchmann, Uran, Adam Yates

Adam Yates | Jonas Vingegaard - Yellow Jersey | Critérium du Dauphiné 2023 - Stage 8 | Cycling Men | ESP Player Feature

Image credit: Getty Images

When Primoz Roglic crashed out two years ago, team-mate Vingegaard grabbed his opportunity with both hands to take second place on his debut. History repeated itself – thanks to an errant haybale – last year, with Vingegaard going one better and winning the holy grail for Jumbo-Visma.

In Roglic’s absence this July, the Dutch team’s fall-back in the event of their leader crashing out is Wilco Kelderman. While it doesn’t have quite the same punch as the previous scenario, the 32-year-old came third in the 2020 Giro and fifth one year later at the Tour. Although with only 14 race days to Kelderman’s name this year, it’s fair to say it’s win with Vingegaard or bust for Jumbo-Visma.

In the event of their top dog succumbing to his wrist injury, UAE Team Emirates have a far better prospect in Adam Yates. Following his switch from Ineos Grenadiers, the Briton won the Tour de Romandie and came second in the Dauphine, albeit 2’23” down on Vingegaard – the man he’d probably have to beat.

Further down the spectrum of credibility, Bahrain-Victorious and Bora-hansgrohe have Jack Haig and Emanuel Buchmann as their respective Plan Bs. Australia’s Haig didn’t set the Giro on fire but came fifth in the Dauphine – enough to earn a leadership role over team-mate Landa, perhaps – while Germany’s Buchmann soloed to victory in the German nationals last week, which bodes well.

Covid messed up Rigoberto Uran’s hopes for the Giro and he could use all his experience to step up should EF Education-EasyPost team-mate Carapaz falter. Runner-up in 2017, the Colombian veteran is not the GC force he used to be, but still came ninth in last year’s Vuelta while winning a stage.

The outsiders: Ciccone, Meintjes, Martin, Rodriguez, Martinez, Lutsenko

Giulio Ciccone

Image credit: Getty Images

None of these riders has the slightest chances of winning the Tour but they could ride themselves into a top 10 finish if their legs – and circumstances – play ball, although a lot will depend on whether they prioritise stage wins, the polka dot jersey or potential domestique duties for others.

Italy’s Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) is the most talented climber of the lot and took the polka dot jersey in the Dauphine after his Stage 8 win. South Africa’s Louis Meintjes (Intermarche-Circus-Wanty) took a career-high seventh last year but is still in search of an elusive Tour stage win – ditto Frenchman Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) who has yet to finish higher than third in a stage in his home tour.

Ineos Grenadier pair Carlos Rodriguez and Dani Martinez have been linked with moves to Movistar and Bora-hansgrohe respectively, and a solid Tour for a team without a bona fide GC contender would do their chances of a decent contract no end of good.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Alexey Lutsenko (Astana-Qazaqstan) has ghosted his way into the top 10 for the last two years, and with Astana’s focus lying with Mark Cavendish’s push for a record-breaking 35th stage win, the newly crowned national road race and TT champion will look for more of the same this July.

The debutant: Mattias Skjelmose

Mattias Skjelmose

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While the aforementioned Hindley is arguably the most high-profile debutant, Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) flies under the radar a little bit on the account of his not being a Giro d’Italia winner. But that does not mean we can take Skjelmose lightly.

The 22-year-old Dane has enjoyed a breakthrough year so far, following up his solid sprint – the highlight being second place in Fleche Wallonne – with victory in the Tour de Suisse (ahead of Remco Evenepoel, no less). If Skjelmose will start his second Grand Tour in the Danish national champion colours, he may well be dreaming of the white jersey should Pogacar struggle to bounce back from injury.

The departing: Thibaut Pinot

'It was daft' - Reaction to Pinot's dramatic attacks on chaotic Stage 13

After all those second places, it’s no surprise that Thibaut Pinot has decided to have one last roll of the dice in the Tour de France before hanging up his cycling shoes at the end of the season.

The 33-year-old Frenchman has now finished second on five occasions this year – most notably twice on the Giro d’Italia behind Einer Rubio at Crans-Montana and Filippo Zana at Val di Zoldo. The scene is perfectly set for Pinot to end that run with a fourth stage win on the Tour – and a first since 2019.

Pinot’s presence in Groupama-FDJ’s team means there’s no place for sprinter Arnaud Demare – but it remains to be seen if the old romantic goes all-in for his own ambitions, or if he carries out domestique duties for team leader Gaudu. A bit of both is the most likely scenario – although after finishing fifth in the Giro, will Pinot have dreams of returning to the Tour top 10 for the first time in nine years?

The big question mark: Egan Bernal

Egan Bernal of Colombia and Team INEOS Grenadiers sprints during the 76th Tour De Romandie 2023, Prologue a 6.82km stage from Port-Valais to Port-Valais / #UCIWT / on April 25, 2023 in Port-Valais, Switzerland. (Photo by Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)

Image credit: Getty Images

When Pogacar blasted onto the scene in 2019 – the year Egan Bernal won his first and only Tour – fans foresaw a future where the Colombian climber and the swashbuckling Slovenian went head-to-head for the entire decade to come.

But a back injury saw Bernal exit Pogacar’s debut Tour prematurely, with the latter going on to win at the eleventh hour at La Planche des Belles Filles. Soon, Pogacar’s biggest rival became Vingegaard – with Bernal winning the 2021 Giro but then suffering a horrific training crash in the winter of 2022.

It's been a long battle back for Bernal, who now makes his first appearance in the Tour for three years. Expectations are low for the 26-year-old, who could only take 12th place in the Dauphine. The most likely scenario is that he will ride this Tour purely as part of his slow and steady comeback for Ineos Grenadiers.

The day may come when Bernal does battle with the likes of Pogacar and Vingegaard for yellow – but fans will probably have to wait a bit longer.

Tour de France 2023 rider star ratings

***** Jonas Vingegaard
**** Tadej Pogacar
*** Enric Mas, Jai Hindley, Richard Carapaz, Ben O’Connor
** David Gaudu, Simon Yates, Mikel Landa, Romain Bardet, Adam Yates,
* Emanuel Buchmann, Egan Bernal, Giulio Ciccone, Louis Meintjes, Guillaume Martin, Mattias Skjelmose, Carlos Rodriguez, Dani Martinez, Alexey Lutsenko, Jack Haig, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot

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