12 key questions ahead of Tour de France: Can Mark Cavendish create history? Will Tadej Pogacar go out hard?
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Updated 29/06/2024 at 08:18 GMT
The 111th edition of the Tour de France gets under way in Florence on Saturday, 29 June with numerous unanswered questions keeping fans on tenterhooks. Felix Lowe looks at the main talking points ahead of the Italian Grand Depart – including just what can we expect from the double reigning champion Jonas Vingegaard on his return from serious injury.
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The Paris 2024 Olympics means the Tour de France not only starts one week early this year but also foregoes its regular sprint showdown on the Champs-Elysees. In our extensive Tour de France 2024 preview series, we have already looked at the route and key stages of the 111th edition as well as weighing up all the options in the battle for the yellow jersey.
With our teams guide still to follow, it’s now time to address the key questions and try to come up with some answers. The events of the spring mean what had been billed as a four-way battle for yellow is now something much more complicated and fluid – with many doors opened to a cluster of outsiders, and one rider’s choice to target a Giro-Tour double looking cannier by the day…
Will Vingegaard be able to mount a serious challenge?
It’s the question that will shape the dynamic of the next few weeks: has the Danish double champion recovered enough from the horrific injuries he sustained in Itzulia Basque Country in April?
The short answer is no one really knows – even his team. Vingegaard has been training at altitude with Wout van Aert, also fighting for fitness following his own crash in the spring. Initially, Visma-Lease a Bike management said that Vingegaard would only go to the Tour if he’s at 100 per cent. But sports director Merijn Zeeman now says the new benchmark is for Vingegaard to be “competitive” rather than “fighting for yellow”. Hence, presumably, his selection.
The reality is that Vingegaard, even if fit and raring to go, will not have raced since April 4 and that will surely put him at a disadvantage – as will the eleventh-hour withdrawal of Covid-stricken key mountain domestique Sepp Kuss. As Zeeman says: “Training is one thing, but whether you can be competitive in the Tour is something else.”
Just ask Tadej Pogacar, who arrived at last year’s Tour with just two race days in his legs following his crash at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He seemed competitive early on, but his challenge imploded in the third week.
How much of a favourite is Pogacar?
When the Slovenian announced his race programme, many felt that his decision to ride the Giro d’Italia was an admission of his inability to beat Vingegaard in the Tour. How quickly things have changed. With the Giro won in convincing fashion while his main rivals – Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel – were all sidelined with injuries, Pogacar will aim to pick up where he left off.
Pogacar has proven just how well he can ride in Italy and this year’s Tour starts with three tough stages on Italian soil before heading to France via the mighty Col du Galibier. Rather than being at a disadvantage because of the physical efforts of winning the Giro, Pogacar could hold all the aces. Play them right, and he could have a commanding lead even before the first of two time trials.
But the third week will be key. While his main rival could pay for his lack of racing, the accumulative fatigue of over-racing may be the biggest obstacle between Pogacar and the yellow jersey. If he wants to be the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win an historic double, Pogi will need to ride a canny race and lean heavily on his team of superstar mountain domestiques.
Is this Roglic’s last chance of Tour glory?
Quite possibly. Given his age and track record, Roglic was probably bottom of the Big Four pecking order entering this season: not only is he the oldest, but also he’s on a new team with a lot to take on board. But the Itzulia crash changed everything, with Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel coming off far worse than the 34-year-old Slovenian.
Vingegaard still has not raced since that incident, while the Belgian former world champion struggled on the climbs in the Dauphine, plus is also a debutant on the Tour with a poor track record of racing in France – remember his implosion on the Tourmalet during the Vuelta last year?
With the possibility of Pogacar feeling the pinch after the Giro, surely Roglic has emerged nearer the top of the pack now ahead of the Tour. Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov and Bob Jungels are capable mountain lieutenants for Roglic at Bora; it’s surely now or never. And yet… he only beat Matteo Jorgenson by eight seconds in the Dauphine, and despite two summit victories, Roglic still got caught up in a crash – something he seems incapable of avoiding.
To win the Tour, he needs everything to go his way – something that has rarely happened for Roglic, even in his prime.
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Highlights: Roglic holds on for overall win as Rodriguez claims dramatic Stage 8 victory
What can we expect from Evenepoel’s debut?
Will we see the Evenepoel who trounced the field during the Dauphine time trial? Or will we see the Evenepoel who got distanced on every climb and ended up below Visma-Lease a Bike’s GC back-up plan, Bora-Hansgrohe’s third-choice GC rider, Ineos Grenadiers’ Plan E, not to mention the unheralded Derek Gee?
Of course, not too much can be extrapolated from Evenepoel’s first race back following his collarbone fracture in Itzulia. The Belgian, after all, went down hard in the crash that neutralised Stage 5 while he was in yellow.
But winning the Tour de France at the first time of asking is going to be considerably harder than winning his debut Vuelta in 2022 – not least because of the competition he’s up against, but also because the Tour is a far harder beast to tame. And Evenepoel’s performance on the Tourmalet in last year’s Vuelta hardly bodes well.
Realistically, Evenepoel shouldn’t feature in the GC battle – even with two time trials featuring on the route. Given the trajectory of both his career and this season, the 24-year-old would be better off targeting a top 10, a stage win, and perhaps the white jersey. Most importantly, he will want to stay out of trouble and get to the finish in Nice. That way the race will be a proper stepping stone to a yellow jersey push in 2025.
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‘It goes up and down’ - Evenepoel on life as a GC contender at the Grand Tours
Which team has the best Plan B?
Anyone betting on a winner beyond Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglic would have been roundly ridiculed a few months ago. But now there’s a chance that this race may not be the four-way battle we always presumed it would be.
UAE Team Emirates seem to have the best strength in depth. Should Pogacar struggle following his Giro exertions, Tour de Suisse winner Adam Yates is a ready-made replacement, ditto Joao Almeida, who completed a UAE one-two in Switzerland. Juan Ayuso also makes his Tour debut after coming third and fourth in his first two Vueltas.
If Mikel Landa is not really a viable back-up plan for Evenepoel at Soudal Quick-Step, Bora-Hansgrohe have options in 2022 Giro winner Jai Hindley and the Russian all-rounder Aleksandr Vlasov – both of whom could finish above leader Roglic even if the Slovenian stays on his bike.
The situation at Visma-Lease a Bike is precarious, which is odd given they won three Grand Tours with three different riders last year. But Vingegaard’s injury coupled with the absence of Vuelta champion Sepp Kuss means that their only viable Plan B is Matteo Jorgenson.
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Rodriguez beats Jorgenson to Stage 8 sprint finish, Roglic wins overall
The American has been one of the revelations of the season – winning Paris-Nice and pushing Roglic all the way in the Dauphine. But he’s never cracked the top 10 of a Grand Tour and is wholly unproven as a GC rider in three-week races.
Which leaves Ineos Grenadiers. Perhaps because it’s hard to tell who their Plan A is, they could go under the radar in France. Carlos Rodriguez, Egan Bernal, Geraint Thomas, Tom Pidcock and even Laurens de Plus are all solid options for Ineos – although of that quintet, only Spanish youngster Rodriguez can occupy the same bracket as the rider they let go last year, Adam Yates.
Can Cavendish sign off in style by making history?
If Jasper Philipsen and his ruthless Alpecin-Deceuninck team perform like they did last year, then Cavendish win #35 seems unlikely. Then again, Cav came within a dropped chain of beating Philipsen in Bordeaux in 2023, so it would be wrong to write off the 39-year-old just yet.
What the Manx Missile may lack in pure speed and youthful vigour he makes up in experience and know-how. Cavendish has also been reunited with tried-and-tested lead-out man Michael Morkov, which could prove the difference. With Cees Bol and Davide Ballerini also in Astana’s train, Cavendish can be assured of a few magic carpet rides to the line – and if anyone can finish things off, it’s Sir Mark.
It’s worth adding that the sprint field is far weaker than that of the Giro in May, with the likes of Wout van Aert, Arnaud Demare, Mads Pedersen, Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, Bryan Coquard, Fabio Jakobsen and Biniam Girmay all relatively minor threats – for one reason or another – when setting aside Philipsen. On his day, Cavendish can beat them all. And his day could well be Stage 6 to Dijon or Stage 16 to Nimes.
Who’s Britain’s best chance of a stage winner?
While there’s no place for the four-time winner Chris Froome, it looks like a record-breaking 11 British riders will take to the start in Florence – more than ever before in history and up from just six in 2023. They are:
- Daniel McLay (32, Arkea-B&B Hotels)
- Mark Cavendish (39, Astana Qazaqstan)
- Fred Wright (25, Bahrain Victorious)
- Thomas Pidcock (24, Ineos Grenadiers)
- Geraint Thomas (38, Ineos Grenadiers)
- Ben Turner (25, Ineos Grenadiers)
- Oscar Onley (21, Team dsm-firmenich PostNL)
- Simon Yates (31, Team Jayco-AlUla)
- Adam Yates (31, UAE Team Emirates)
- Jake Stewart (24, Israel-Premier Tech)
- Stephen Williams (28, Israel-Premier Tech)
If Pidcock prioritises winning stages over a middling GC position, then he has all the attributes to win a stage – perhaps even as early as in Italy. But will he be let off the leash when team-mate Rodriguez is a viable yellow jersey candidate?
The Yates twins are capable of winning stages in the Tour over tricky terrain – as we saw in last year’s opener in the Basque Country, when Adam pipped Simon for the first yellow jersey. Debutant Onley has had a solid season and won’t be a marked man – ditto Williams, who showed his climbing ability with victory in La Fleche Wallonne. A Grand Tour stage win, meanwhile, still eludes Wright – but not for lack of trying.
Cavendish remains the most likely – but Williams, Onley, Pidcock and both Yateses have a solid case. Even Welsh veteran Thomas said this week that he’d be on the hunt for a stage win given he’s not riding for GC. Another way of looking at it is this: it’s inconceivable – given the class of that list – that we won’t see a British stage winner in 2024.
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Yates wins Stage 7 of Tour of Switzerland, crosses line arm in arm with team-mate Almeida
Who can be the dark horse of the race?
In light of his brilliant debut season at Visma-Lease a Bike, it’s a bit of a push to call Jorgenson a dark horse. But with all eyes on team leader Jonas Vingegaard, the in-form American could easily go under the radar.
Another rider in tip-top condition at the Dauphine was Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) who notched his first pro win off the back of that string of second-place finishes in last year’s Giro. The Canadian also finished just behind Jorgenson and winner Roglic on the final podium, so expect him to go all-in at the Tour.
Rodriguez’s stage win last year would elevate him above dark horse status, but with the focus elsewhere – even on his own team, where the likes of Pidcock and Bernal seem to steal the headlines – the Spanish climber could cause a surprise. While favourite for the white jersey, Rodriguez could end up in yellow if things go his way.
Lotto Dstny duo Maxim van Gils and Arnaud De Lie – the latter making his debut – could write themselves into the headlines this July, while Norway’s Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility) has shown strong form of late.
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Glee for Gee as he sprints to Criterium du Dauphine stage 3 success
Who will be the best placed French rider?
There once was a time when David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) was being feted as the next best thing for French cycling – certainly an heir to the throne vacated by Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet. But that ship seems to have sailed.
Still, along with Pavel Sivakov (UAE Team Emirates) and Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL), Gaudu seems to be the best bet for the home nation – although he could face stiff opposition from Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) and perhaps team-mate Lenny Martinez, who makes his debut. None of the above, however, look destined to finish in the top 10 come Nice.
How much will Paris be missed from the parcours?
Not only will we experience the first-ever Tour finish away from Paris and the first finish away from the Champs-Elysees since 1974, but we will also get a final-day time trial for the first time since 1989, on the French Riviera in Nice.
The Paris 2024 Olympics are the reason for this historic change, but will it be a one-off or could we see the race finish in other parts of France more regularly – like we do at the Giro and Vuelta?
A lot will depend on how successful the final few days of the 2024 Tour are. But with the Cime de la Bonette in Stage 19, the first ever finish on the Col de la Couillole after the iconic Braus-Turini double in Stage 20, and a lumpy time trial out of Monaco and over the Col d’Eze for Stage 21, finishes outside Paris could become a thing.
Let’s just hope we have a fraction of the excitement of that famous Fignon v LeMond time trial from 35 years ago – and not a damp squib with everything done and dusted before the last rider rolls down the ramp.
Who will win each of the jerseys?
It’s looking increasingly likely that Pogacar will win the yellow jersey – and that would usually put him in good stead to snare the polka dot jersey too. Should the latter be awarded to a climber not wholly involved in the GC battle, then the likes of Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and perhaps even Gaudu (Groupama FDJ) could find themselves in the mix.
Although given how their seasons have gone, you could just as well imagine Evenepoel and Vingegaard having to downgrade their targets and do battle for polka dots rather than yellow.
For green, it looks to be a two-way battle between last year’s winner Philipsen and the Dane Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) could inveigle himself into this should Vingegaard’s yellow jersey push not materialise and the Belgian finds his sprinting legs. But that’s a huge ask.
For the first time in five years, we will see a new rider take the white jersey now that Pogacar is too old to qualify. It’s impossible to see beyond the quintet of Evenepoel, Rodriguez, Ayuso, Jorgenson and Pidcock. All things considered, the safe money is on Spain’s Carlos Rodriguez.
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‘Big dreams’ - Pidcock on the ‘ups and downs’ of his 2024 season, targets Tour de France success
Could the race be over by the end of the first week?
Believe the rumours and Pogacar’s UAE team will be looking to put the battle for yellow to bed inside the final week. The idea is that they should capitalise on not only their leader’s superlative form but also the condition of his Danish rival and the seemingly sub-strength Visma-Lease a Bike team.
And you can see why such a tactic would be wise: by utilising their superior squad, UAE could put all Pogacar’s rivals under pressure from the outset – especially with the Galibier coming on Stage 4 when the race finally heads into France after three lumpy days in northern Italy where it’s not inconceivable that significant time gaps could already be opened.
Once in a position to chase the race, Vingegaard would struggle given his lack of race days and the paucity of his firepower at Visma compared to Pogacar’s riches of resources. A lot may come down to the time trial on Stage 7. If Pogacar can subject Vingegaard to the kind of beating he received 12 months earlier, then it would be hard to see a way back for the defending champion.
But there still remain some mighty mountain tests in week two, while the difficulty of the final week – when Pogacar might start feeling the combined efforts of riding the Giro and Tour in quick succession – may come to the fore. The beauty of cycling is that we won’t know until we know – so roll on the next three weeks of Tour action.
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