Tour de France 2024: Yellow jersey guide and predictions - Can Jonas Vingegaard stop Tadej Pogacar doing the double?

Updated 27/06/2024 at 11:49 GMT

Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard and the current Giro d’Italia champion Tadej Pogacar go head-to-head in a bid to become the first to notch a third Tour de France title this July. With Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel also lurking, and Ineos Grenadiers with a wealth of options and experience, fans can expect a thrilling battle for the yellow jersey. Felix Lowe takes a closer look...

‘Everyone is where they need to be’ – Blythe brushes off Evenepoel worries, tips Pogacar to win Tour

Two riders can pick up their third Tour de France crown this July in Nice but both stars enter the 111th edition of the world’s biggest bike race with a little excess baggage. Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar has the momentum with him after dominating the Giro d’Italia – but will he be fatigued after his exertions in Italy? Meanwhile, Danish sensation Jonas Vingegaard hasn’t ridden a competitive race since crashing out of Itzulia Basque Country in April with a litany of serious injuries.

The remaining two riders of the so-called Big Four – Slovenia’s Primoz Roglic and Belgian debutant Remco Evenepoel – were also hampered by that same crash in the Basque Country, although they returned to action in the Dauphine, with varying degrees of success.

Beyond the sport’s top stars – all of whom have something holding them back – there is a host of riders, both young and old, who are ready to take a step up, break through, or reassert their dominance with a timely reminder of former glories or a confirmation of their supreme talent.

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And while there is clearly an out-and-out favourite for yellow in the seemingly indomitable Pogacar, never has a set of circumstances conspired to make a modern-day Tour so open and unpredictable. In the next of our pre-race Tour de France previews, Felix Lowe runs through all the contenders for the maillot jaune.

The favourite: Tadej Pogacar

After his Danish nemesis matched his two successive Tour de France wins last summer, Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) looked to have thrown in the towel by shifting his focus to the Giro. But could that decision now pay off big time? The 25-year-old Slovenian superstar won six stages as he secured the maglia rosa at a canter while his main rivals all recovered from injuries sustained at Itzulia Basque Country.

Pogacar has 14 wins this season and arrives at the Tour with what is arguably the strongest team in support of his ambitious attempt to become the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to do the double. The only question is whether his efforts from May will ultimately hold him back as the Tour enters its decisive and demanding third week.

Tadej Pogacar und Jonas Vingegaard bei der Tour de France 2023

Image credit: Getty Images

Still, Pogacar and his people will prefer to have had just 34 days recovery after the Giro than to have been out of action since April – as is the case with the next man on our list…

The big question mark: Jonas Vingegaard

The best part of three months has passed since the Dane’s preparations were thrown into turmoil in a ditch on the side of a sweeping downhill road in the Basque Country.

Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike management first said that the double defending champion would only ride the Tour if at 100%. And let’s be honest here: the last two years has shown that no one beats the 27-year-old if he’s at 100%.

But recent noises from the Visma camp suggest Vingegaard could well be short of 100%. In fact, sports director Merijn Zeeman is now stressing that “competitive” rather than “fighting for yellow” was the benchmark for team selection.

What we do know is that Vingegaard and his fellow recovering team-mate Wout van Aert have been training behind closed doors at altitude in Tignes, where they have been joined latterly by the rest of a team now deprived of the experienced Dutch duo of Steven Kruijswijk and Dylan van Baarle.

Jonas Vingegaard

Image credit: Getty Images

Before suffering multiple broken ribs, a collapsed lung, and a broken collarbone in Itzulia, Vingegaard had started the season with victories in both O Gran Camino and Tirreno-Adriatico. Last year, Pogacar struggled at the Tour after his own injury lay off following a fractured wrist at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. A lot will depend on whether Vingegaard suffers similar struggles in his own return to racing.

As Zeeman says: “Training is one thing, but whether you can be competitive in the Tour is something else.”

Pushing for the podium: Primoz Roglic, Adam Yates

Fitness and form aside, it’s safe to assume that – in any ordinary race – the top two places on the podium would be occupied by the two same riders who have occupied those spaces for the past three years. Which leaves the final berth.

Sense would say Primoz Roglic (Bora-Hansgrohe) given his recent win in the Dauphine and his Tour pedigree. But we all know about the 34-year-old’s tendency to crash so it’s far from a done deal.

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates), meanwhile, was firing on all cylinders during his Tour de Suisse win – and while he will be deployed as Pogacar’s final man in the mountains, UAE will want to keep the Briton in contention should their leader be feeling the pinch after his Giro exploits.

Highlights: Yates takes Stage 7 of Tour of Switzerland alongside team-mate Almeida

The white KNIGHTS: Juan Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez, Remco Evenepoel

One thing is certain about the 2024 Tour: we will see a new white jersey for the first time in five years. Since winning the Tour on his debut in 2021 – swapping white for yellow on the penultimate day’s time trial – Pogacar has been the best placed young rider (and all the rest). But the 25-year-old no longer qualifies for the youth category, opening the door to what could be a thrilling battle between two young Spanish talents.

Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) makes his long-awaited debut in the Tour after finishing third and fourth in his first two Vueltas. Runner-up in Tirreno and victor at Itzulia after all the Big Three crashed out, the 21-year-old is a vital cog in UAE’s armoury – but will he sacrifice his own ambitions for his leader, and could doing so even play into his hands?

If there are some lingering doubts over Ayuso’s form and fitness after he abandoned the Dauphine, the same cannot be said for his compatriot Carlos Rodriguez (Ineos Grenadiers) who signed off in style with a victory at Plateau des Glieres in the final stage. Having won the Tour of Romandie earlier in the spring, the 23-year-old will look to build on his fifth place in his Tour debut last year.

After smashing the Dauphine time trial, the TT world champion Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) showed that there’s still a lot of work to be done ahead of his long-awaited Tour debut. The 24-year-old eventually finished 2’25” behind Roglic in the traditional warm-up race to the Tour – and remains relatively unproven and unconvincing on French roads, his Vuelta ambitions having imploded last year on the Col du Tourmalet.

‘Wow!’ – Evenepoel returns to winning ways with TT triumph on Stage 4

Given his battle back from injuries at Itzulia and his inexperience, Evenepoel might be better off targeting the white jersey rather than the yellow. A top five could be a good base on which to build for a future maillot jaune push.

Top five ambitions: Enric Mas, Joao Almeida

Like Evenepoel, Enric Mas (Movistar) also finished seventh in his warm-up race – albeit a whopping five minutes off the pace in the Tour de Suisse. A DNF in his previous two Tours, Mas will hope to emulate, or even better, his fifth place from 2020. But form and confidence are in short supply for the Spaniard, who has lacked zip since finishing runner-up in the 2022 Vuelta for a third time.

A far more likely candidate for the top 5 comes with the in-form Portuguese climber Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) who won two stages in Suisse en route to finishing behind team-mate Yates in the final podium. Almeida makes his Tour debut at the age of 25 and – on paper – is one of four UAE Team Emirates riders who may be battling for all three positions on the final podium (along with Pogacar, Yates and Ayuso).

Top 10 ambitions: Pello Bilbao, Aleksandr Vlasov, Jai Hindley, Simon Yates

Given Primoz Roglic’s bad luck, Bora-Hansgrohe duo Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley could well find themselves elevated above Plan B status. And even if riding in support of the Slovenian, both riders should be targeting the top 10. Russia’s Vlasov came fifth at his only previous Tour in 2022 while Hindley, the former Giro champion from Italy, wore yellow for a day in his debut last year following his win in Laruns.

Since parting ways with twin brother Adam, who joined Ineos and then UAE, Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla) has hardly been pulling up trees – although the two paired up in dramatic fashion on the opening stage to San Sebastian last year. Simon stemmed a series of three Grand Tour DNFs with fourth place in last year’s Tour, however, and if competing with the so-called Big Four looks unlikely, a place in the top 10 would be a realistic target.

Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) is consistent enough to make the top 10 once again. The Basque climber’s record at the Tour improves as he gets older, with last year’s stage win and sixth on GC the pick of the bunch. Runner-up in the Tour of Slovenia, the 34-year-old seems to be coming to the boil nicely.

Bilbao plays 'poker game' to win Queen stage at Tour of Slovenia

Forgotten forces: Egan Bernal, Jack Haig, Richard Carapaz

Colombia’s Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) finished 36th in last year’s race on his return to the Tour after a prolonged injury lay-off. Bernal is still a long way short of the rider who won the 2019 edition but he’s slowly been returning to form with top 10s in all five of his stage races this season. At 27, he still has time on his side, but the 111th Tour will be a good indication of the future trajectory of Bernal’s career.

Olympic champion Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) will have a point to prove in his second Tour since his big-money move from Ineos Grenadiers. The wheels came off the Ecuadorian’s race on day one last year. Carapaz, the 2019 Giro winner, will hope to rediscover the form that saw him come second in the 2022 Giro and 2020 Vuelta, and third in the 2021 Tour.

Now 31, Carapaz’s form has been mixed this year: after an average Ardennes, he won a stage in Romandie but failed to finish the Tour de Suisse. He has a point to prove – and Jonathan Vaughters needs him to prove it.

Remember when Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious) was the next big thing from Australia? Now 30, Haig has had some rotten luck at the world’s biggest bike race – crashing out in 2021 and 2022 – and has been somewhat eclipsed by the emergence of compatriots Jai Hindley and Ben O’Connor.

A lowly 28th last year, the flame-haired climber has not yet found his groove this season – only once cracking the top 10 on any race day, missing out, even, on his habitual fifth place in the Dauphine.

Tom Pidcock, Egan Bernal, Carlos Rodriguez and Michal Kwiatkowski

Image credit: Getty Images

The outsiders: Mikel Landa, Matteo Jorgenson, Felix Gall, Tom Pidcock

The only way Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) can inveigle himself into the GC battle is following a crash or collapse from his team leader, Evenepoel – although far stranger things have happened.

In a similar way, the GC prospects of Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) will depend on the form of his leader Vingegaard. Although that’s where the comparisons with lowly Landa stop.

The American has shown his class in week-long stage races this year with victory in Paris-Nice and a runner-up spot at the Dauphine. But a Grand Tour is an entirely different beast. Still, should things head south for the double champion from Denmark, then Jorgenson’s star is burning far brighter than that of team-mate Sepp Kuss, who was pulled from the team with Covid on Tuesday.

After Ben O’Connor imploded last year, Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) stepped up with a victory in the queen stage at Courchevel and a runner-up spot on Le Markstein en route to a solid eighth place. The Austrian will be more of a marked man, but with O’Connor sitting this one out, this will be the 26-year-old’s first full tilt at GC.

Yet to crack the top 10 of a Grand Tour, Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers) returns for a third pop after coming 13th last time round. It’s unclear if Pidcock has what it takes over three weeks. The 24-year-old came sixth in the Tour de Suisse and won Amstel Gold in the spring. But Pidcock struggles to ride for anyone else but himself, and surely team-mates Rodriguez and Bernal have a better pedigree.

‘Big result for a big guy!’ - Jorgenson breezes to victory at Dwars door Vlaanderen

The climbers: David Gaudu, Giulio Ciccone, Santiago Buitrago, Guillaume Martin

It’s highly unlikely David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) will end France’s 39-year wait for a Tour win, while Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) has even less of a chance of ending the hoodoo – although the 31-year-old cracked the top 10 on his two previous finishes in Paris.

Italy’s Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) was meant to ride the Giro this year but lost his battle for fitness. No bad thing, given his solid form at the Dauphine combined with the late Tour withdrawal of team-mate Tao Geoghegan Hart, whose season has been stalled by illness.

Watch out, too, for Colombia’s Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) who makes his Tour debut after coming 10th in last year’s Vuelta. Twice a stage winner on the Giro, the 24-year-old picked up a win on Mont Brouilly in Paris-Nice and could climb his way into the top 10.

The golden oldies: Geraint Thomas, Wout Poels, Romain Bardet, Jakob Fuglsang

Chris Froome’s omission from the Israel-Premier Tech team means his former team-mate Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) will be the fourth – and most distant – former winner at the start after Vingegaard, Pogacar and Bernal.

It would be remiss to expect too much of the Welsh veteran after he came third in the Giro this May. His presence on the Ineos roster is surely to add experience and climbing support to the likes of Rodriguez, Pidcock and Bernal – while perhaps angling for his first stage win in six years.

Team Ineos' British rider Geraint Thomas prepares to take the start of the 18th stage of the 107th Giro d'Italia cycling race, 178km between Fiera di Primiero and Padua on May 23, 2024.

Image credit: Getty Images

Replacing Froome at Israel-Premier Tech is the veteran Dane Jakob Fuglsang, who failed to finish his last three Tours and indeed has not completed a Grand Tour since coming sixth in the 2020 Giro. It’s very much a like-for-like replacement as Froome (age 39, best result on the road this year: 21st) steps aside for Fuglsang (age 39, best result this year: 22nd).

A former team-mate of both Froome and Thomas, Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious) was left out of his team’s Giro squad – much to his annoyance. A stage winner at the Tour last year, the rangy Dutchman only has two top 10 finishes in Grand Tours: sixth in the Vuelta in both 2017 and 2020. That is not going to change in his 37th year.

Like Thomas, Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) also rode the Giro and so a tilt at the GC for a rider who nevertheless came sixth in 2022 is unlikely. The 33-year-old from France is enjoying a solid season, mind, and could be a good bet for a stage win in what will be his final Tour before road retirement.

The dark horses: Alexey Lutsenko, Derek Gee

Winning the Giro d’Abruzzo aside, it’s been a bit of a nondescript season for Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan), who could only muster 40th last time round. This was preceded by two top 10 finishes by Lutsenko, the 31-year-old displaying an ability to ghost his way to a high finish.

Four times a runner-up in his debut Giro last year, Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) then seemed to disappear from the scene. But the rangy Canadian returned with a bang at the Dauphine – securing his first ever pro win and matching the best climbers en route to a breakthrough third place on GC.

Glee for Gee as he sprints to Criterium du Dauphine stage 3 success

If that makes him more of a marked man than he may have expected, Gee will still enter his debut Tour very much with under-dog status – which will suit him just fine. His climbing is both tenacious and sublime for a big guy, and he’s also an accomplished time trialler.

It’s probably too early for the 26-year-old to mount a serious challenge for yellow or even the top 10, but like his fellow North American Jorgenson, Gee is a thrilling prospect for future Grand Tours, as well as a battling rider in the present.

Tour de France 2024 rider ratings

***** Tadej Pogacar
**** Jonas Vingegaard
*** Primoz Roglic, Adam Yates, Carlos Rodriguez
** Remco Evenepoel, Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso
* Pello Bilbao, Aleksandr Vlasov, Enric Mas, Jai Hindley, Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, Egan Bernal, Santiago Buitrago, Richard Carapaz, Felix Gall

Predicted top 10

1. Pogacar, 2. A. Yates, 3. Rodriguez, 4. Vingegaard, 5. Roglic, 6. Bilbao, 7. Almeida, 8. Ayuso, 9. Evenepoel, 10. Mas

Eurosport and discovery+ is the streaming home of the Tour de France this summer, with live coverage running June 29 to July 21.

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