Premier League 2015-16 season preview: Who will win the sack race?

This is the time of the season when optimism reigns. Without a point yet won, without a goal yet scored, the football fan is infected with irrational hope. This could be the season that everything kicks in, when reality matches expectation, when glory finally trumps frustration, when your new pricey foreign mercenary bought on the recommendation of a dodgy agent does indeed turn out to be the next Lionel Messi.

[COMMENT: Stakes higher than ever for under-pressure Rodgers]

Hope and anticipation, however, appears not to be a universal condition. For some the impending resumption of footballing hostilities is producing nothing but jitters. And the bad news for those occupying the dug-out is that the nerves are largely twitching in the boardrooms of our leading clubs.

Bookies report that more money than ever has been staked on the annual Managerial Sack Race, the unedifying rush to predict who will be the first top-flight boss to be spending more time improving his golf swing. Paddy Power reckons the two favourites for the axe are Quique Flores and Brendan Rodgers, both at 5-1. Followed by Dick Advocaat and Manuel Pellegrini at 7-1, Tim Sherwood and Slaven Bilic at 15-2 and Claudio Ranieri at 8-1.

Perhaps more indicative of the edgy disposition of many a chairman is that the bookie is quoting odds of 100-1 that no manager will be sacked this season. Though frankly, even at 10,000-1 it would not be a remotely tempting wager. Because you can bet your life at least one manager will pay for disappointment with their job. And that the first will be gone long before Christmas.

As far as their employment security goes, for Premier League managers, and indeed those in the Championship, this threatens to be the most treacherous season in history. With the huge new television deal kicking in, staying in or getting into the Premier League is the sole concern for chairmen covetously eyeing the £100 million minimum income that will now come with membership of the richest of rich men’s clubs.

Sure there are half a dozen Premier League boardrooms where the contemplation of the possibility of relegation will not be detaining any of those in charge. At Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool it is not an issue. But for the rest, and for the 24 Championship clubs jostling for admission to the money printing exercise that is the new Sky-bolstered Premier League, we can be certain of this: at the very first hint of possible eviction, fingers will be poised above the ejector button.

Take Leicester City. Owned by an ambitious consortium of Thai business people, this is a club whose commercial model is entirely dependent on staying in the top flight. In Thailand, where the owners seek exposure, the Championship is not an option. For them, Leicester is only of use as a marketing tool to promote their financial interests if it remains connected to the Premier League brand. Especially now that brand comes with such lucrative returns.

As they have proved by summarily removing a manager who saved the club from demotion last season simply because they did not like the cut of his jib (and frankly who could blame them) they are not going to mess around if things start to look precarious.

It all means that, disappointing as it may be, we might not be exposed for long to Claudio Ranieri’s amiable eccentricities. A bad start, a couple of swift defeats, an early brush with the relegation zone, and his bumbling strangulations of English syntax will not be long heard in post-match press conferences at the King Power stadium.

The truth is, he has already failed in the single most important job he had to do on his appointment to replace Nigel Pearson this summer: keep Esteban Cambiasso at the club. The departure of the man who more than any ensured a maintenance of Premier League status last season has critically undermined Ranieri’s chances of repeating what Pearson did. Add to that a hugely underwhelming collection of new recruits, and it cannot be long before panic seizes the boardroom.

But even Ranieri looks on solid ground compared to Quique Flores at Watford. This is a club that fires managers more frequently than many a student changes their underpants. Five have come and gone since this time last year. And that was in a season when they gained promotion. The chances of the latest fall guy – a man with no experience of managing in England – surviving long if things start to go pear-shaped are about as high as Donald Trump’s of being made an Honorary Citizen of Mexico City.

Tim Sherwood, Slaven Bilic and Dick Advocaat all face similar pressures. In charge of clubs that simply cannot afford eviction this season, they will be removed at the merest sniff of decline. A bad start and any of them could be working on their golf handicap before the leaves have turned colour.

None of that, however, explains why Brendan Rodgers and Manuel Pellegrini occupy positions at the top of the sack race leaderboard. Both are excellent coaches who have fostered a progressive atmosphere in their respective dressing rooms, delivering brilliant football along the way. Pellegrini has won trophies; Rodgers has continued to develop his team despite having his best players routinely picked off by rivals.

And yet here they are apparently favourites for the chop. To suggest two such distinguished coaches are in danger of being given their P45s is surely to suggest football is a reckless, illogical business absurdly incapable of anything other than short-term, knee-jerk, reactive decision making. Oh hang on…